IrancloseshipsGeopoliticsStrait of HormuzOil
Total volume: 892,176 US$ 24h volume: 1,568 US$ Liquidity: 37,090 US$
Implied probability is the price of a YES share: one costs $0.37 now and pays $1 if the question resolves yes — what the market's traders believe, not Gheymatban's forecast and not the truth.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to 0 for any date between June 26 and the specified date, 2026.
0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by..? — YES probability from 53% on 3 Sept 2026 to 38% on 1 Oct 2026
Source: a prediction market's questions on Iran — read-only