Abbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by December 31?

IranAraghchiGeopoliticsU.S. x Iran

Updated:2 Oct

Implied probability December 316.5%

Move1d −3 pp1w −2 pp1m −8 pp

Bid/ask spreadbid 5% / ask 8%

Ends31 Dec 2026 in 91 days

Total volume: 81,163 US$ 24h volume: 242 US$ Liquidity: 12,009 US$

Implied probability is the price of a YES share: one costs $0.065 now and pays $1 if the question resolves yes — what the market's traders believe, not Gheymatban's forecast and not the truth.

Resolution rules (the market's own text)

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Abbas Araghchi ceases to be Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET).

YES probability over timeDecember 31

Outcomes

Source: a prediction market's questions on Iran — read-only

Abbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by December 31?

IranAraghchiGeopoliticsU.S. x Iran

Updated:2 Oct

Implied probability December 316.5%

Move1d −3 pp1w −2 pp1m −8 pp

Bid/ask spreadbid 5% / ask 8%

Ends31 Dec 2026 in 91 days

Total volume: 81,163 US$ 24h volume: 242 US$ Liquidity: 12,009 US$

Implied probability is the price of a YES share: one costs $0.065 now and pays $1 if the question resolves yes — what the market's traders believe, not Gheymatban's forecast and not the truth.

Resolution rules (the market's own text)

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Abbas Araghchi ceases to be Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET).

YES probability over timeDecember 31

Outcomes

Source: a prediction market's questions on Iran — read-only

Resolution rules (the market's own text)

YES probability over timeDecember 31MonthAll

Outcomes

Resolution rules (the market's own text)

YES probability over timeDecember 31MonthAll

Outcomes

YES probability over timeDecember 31

YES probability over timeDecember 31