Another Iranian Ambassador expelled by October 31?

IranUS-IrandiplomacyAmbassadorGeopolitics

Updated:2 Oct

Implied probability October 3123%thin market

Move1d −3 pp1w +10 pp1m +3.5 pp

Bid/ask spreadbid 16% / ask 30%

Ends31 Oct 2026 in 30 days

Total volume: 44,517 US$ 24h volume: 1,013 US$ Liquidity: 233 US$

Implied probability is the price of a YES share: one costs $0.23 now and pays $1 if the question resolves yes — what the market's traders believe, not Gheymatban's forecast and not the truth.

Resolution rules (the market's own text)

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels the Iranian Ambassador stationed in that country as of market creation between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

YES probability over timeOctober 31

Outcomes

Source: a prediction market's questions on Iran — read-only

Another Iranian Ambassador expelled by October 31?

IranUS-IrandiplomacyAmbassadorGeopolitics

Updated:2 Oct

Implied probability October 3123%thin market

Move1d −3 pp1w +10 pp1m +3.5 pp

Bid/ask spreadbid 16% / ask 30%

Ends31 Oct 2026 in 30 days

Total volume: 44,517 US$ 24h volume: 1,013 US$ Liquidity: 233 US$

Implied probability is the price of a YES share: one costs $0.23 now and pays $1 if the question resolves yes — what the market's traders believe, not Gheymatban's forecast and not the truth.

Resolution rules (the market's own text)

YES probability over timeOctober 31

Outcomes

Source: a prediction market's questions on Iran — read-only

Resolution rules (the market's own text)

YES probability over timeOctober 31MonthAll

Outcomes

Resolution rules (the market's own text)

YES probability over timeOctober 31MonthAll

Outcomes

YES probability over timeOctober 31

YES probability over timeOctober 31