Avg. # of ships transiting Bab el-Mandeb Strait end of October?

OilIranHormuzHouthisGeopoliticsBab el-MandebStrait of Hormuz

Updated:2 Oct

Implied probability 20-2440%thin market

Move1d +6 pp

Bid/ask spreadbid 32% / ask 47%

Ends31 Oct 2026 in 30 days

Total volume: 2,313 US$ 24h volume: 1,899 US$ Liquidity: 33,278 US$

Implied probability is the price of a YES share: one costs $0.395 now and pays $1 if the question resolves yes — what the market's traders believe, not Gheymatban's forecast and not the truth.

Resolution rules (the market's own text)

This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for October 31, 2026.

YES probability over time20-24

No stored history for this outcome yet.

Outcomes

20-241d +6 ppVolume: 1,532 US$
40%
25-291d +4 ppVolume: 411 US$
32%
30-341d +1.5 ppVolume: 117 US$
16%
<201d −1.5 ppVolume: 20 US$
14%
35+1d −4.5 ppVolume: 233 US$
4%

Source: a prediction market's questions on Iran — read-only