Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of October?

OilIranHormuzGeopoliticsStrait of Hormuz

Updated:2 Oct

Implied probability 0-565%

Move1d +15 pp

Bid/ask spreadbid 62% / ask 68%

Ends31 Oct 2026 in 30 days

Total volume: 3,317 US$ 24h volume: 944 US$ Liquidity: 26,823 US$

Implied probability is the price of a YES share: one costs $0.65 now and pays $1 if the question resolves yes — what the market's traders believe, not Gheymatban's forecast and not the truth.

Resolution rules (the market's own text)

This market will resolve according to the finalized 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for October 31, 2026.

YES probability over time0-5

No stored history for this outcome yet.

Outcomes

0-51d +15 ppVolume: 1,206 US$
65%
5-101d −2 ppVolume: 751 US$
22%
10-151d −5.5 ppVolume: 141 US$
8%
20-251d +3 ppVolume: 679 US$
5.3%
15-201d −1.5 ppVolume: 238 US$
4.5%
30+1d −6.6 ppVolume: 95 US$
4%
25-30Volume: 208 US$
4%

Source: a prediction market's questions on Iran — read-only