PoliticshouthiIrantrafficStrait of HormuzOilGeopoliticsRegional Spillover
Total volume: 16M US$ 24h volume: 62,741 US$ Liquidity: 555,570 US$
Implied probability is the price of a YES share: one costs $0.175 now and pays $1 if the question resolves yes — what the market's traders believe, not Gheymatban's forecast and not the truth.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date.
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31? — YES probability from 22% on 9 Jul 2026 to 18% on 1 Oct 2026
Each deadline is a separate contract; these odds do not sum to 100.
Term structure: September 30 0.1%, October 31 7.5%, December 31 18%
Source: a prediction market's questions on Iran — read-only