European military action against Iran by December 31?

UKeuIranEuropeFranceGermanyGeopolitics

Updated:12 Oct

Implied probability December 315.5%

Move1d 0 pp1w −0.5 pp1m −3.5 pp

Bid/ask spreadbid 5% / ask 6%

Ends31 Dec 2026 in 81 days

Total volume: 328,668 US$ 24h volume: 23 US$ Liquidity: 35,655 US$

Implied probability is the price of a YES share: one costs $0.055 now and pays $1 if the question resolves yes — what the market's traders believe, not Gheymatban's forecast and not the truth.

Resolution rules (the market's own text)

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any European country takes a qualifying military action against Iran by the specified date, 11:59 PM Central European Summer Time (CEST).

YES probability over timeDecember 31

Show table

Outcomes

Source: a prediction market's questions on Iran — read-only

European military action against Iran by December 31?

UKeuIranEuropeFranceGermanyGeopolitics

Updated:12 Oct

Implied probability December 315.5%

Move1d 0 pp1w −0.5 pp1m −3.5 pp

Bid/ask spreadbid 5% / ask 6%

Ends31 Dec 2026 in 81 days

Total volume: 328,668 US$ 24h volume: 23 US$ Liquidity: 35,655 US$

Implied probability is the price of a YES share: one costs $0.055 now and pays $1 if the question resolves yes — what the market's traders believe, not Gheymatban's forecast and not the truth.

Resolution rules (the market's own text)

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any European country takes a qualifying military action against Iran by the specified date, 11:59 PM Central European Summer Time (CEST).

YES probability over timeDecember 31

Show table

Outcomes

Source: a prediction market's questions on Iran — read-only

Resolution rules (the market's own text)

YES probability over timeDecember 31MonthAll

Outcomes

Resolution rules (the market's own text)

YES probability over timeDecember 31MonthAll

Outcomes

YES probability over timeDecember 31

YES probability over timeDecember 31