European military action against Iran by December 31?

UKeuIranEuropeFranceGermanyGeopolitics

Updated:2 Oct

Implied probability December 316.5%

Move1d −3 pp1w −3.5 pp1m −5.5 pp

Bid/ask spreadbid 5% / ask 8%

Ends31 Dec 2026 in 91 days

Total volume: 327,960 US$ 24h volume: 329 US$ Liquidity: 57,706 US$

Implied probability is the price of a YES share: one costs $0.065 now and pays $1 if the question resolves yes — what the market's traders believe, not Gheymatban's forecast and not the truth.

Resolution rules (the market's own text)

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any European country takes a qualifying military action against Iran by the specified date, 11:59 PM Central European Summer Time (CEST).

YES probability over timeDecember 31

Outcomes

Source: a prediction market's questions on Iran — read-only

European military action against Iran by December 31?

UKeuIranEuropeFranceGermanyGeopolitics

Updated:2 Oct

Implied probability December 316.5%

Move1d −3 pp1w −3.5 pp1m −5.5 pp

Bid/ask spreadbid 5% / ask 8%

Ends31 Dec 2026 in 91 days

Total volume: 327,960 US$ 24h volume: 329 US$ Liquidity: 57,706 US$

Implied probability is the price of a YES share: one costs $0.065 now and pays $1 if the question resolves yes — what the market's traders believe, not Gheymatban's forecast and not the truth.

Resolution rules (the market's own text)

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any European country takes a qualifying military action against Iran by the specified date, 11:59 PM Central European Summer Time (CEST).

YES probability over timeDecember 31

Outcomes

Source: a prediction market's questions on Iran — read-only

Resolution rules (the market's own text)

YES probability over timeDecember 31MonthAll

Outcomes

Resolution rules (the market's own text)

YES probability over timeDecember 31MonthAll

Outcomes

YES probability over timeDecember 31

YES probability over timeDecember 31