Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?

OilIranUS-IranGeopoliticsMiddle EastU.S. x IranIran Ceasefire

Updated:12 Oct

Implied probability October 312%

Move1d +0.8 pp1w −0.2 pp

Bid/ask spreadbid 1.8% / ask 2.2%

Ends31 Oct 2026 in 20 days

Total volume: 233,308 US$ 24h volume: 1,745 US$ Liquidity: 54,107 US$

Implied probability is the price of a YES share: one costs $0.02 now and pays $1 if the question resolves yes — what the market's traders believe, not Gheymatban's forecast and not the truth.

Resolution rules (the market's own text)

This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one of the specified islands is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

YES probability over timeOctober 31

Show table

Outcomes

Source: a prediction market's questions on Iran — read-only