Greater Tunb Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?

IranKhameneiGeopoliticsIran RegimeU.S. x IranIran CeasefireMojtaba KhameneiStrait of Hormuz

Updated:12 Oct

Implied probability October 311.7%thin market

Move1d +0.2 pp1w +0.1 pp

Bid/ask spreadbid 0.4% / ask 3%

Ends31 Oct 2026 in 20 days

Total volume: 56,491 US$ 24h volume: 0 US$ Liquidity: 13,797 US$

Implied probability is the price of a YES share: one costs $0.017 now and pays $1 if the question resolves yes — what the market's traders believe, not Gheymatban's forecast and not the truth.

Resolution rules (the market's own text)

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Greater Tunb Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

YES probability over timeOctober 31

No stored history for this outcome yet.

Outcomes

October 31thinly traded1d +0.2 pp1w +0.1 ppVolume: 644 US$
1.7%

Source: a prediction market's questions on Iran — read-only