GeopoliticsRegional SpilloverIranBahrainking of bahrain
Total volume: 308,492 US$ 24h volume: 0 US$ Liquidity: 21,563 US$
Implied probability is the price of a YES share: one costs $0.045 now and pays $1 if the question resolves yes — what the market's traders believe, not Gheymatban's forecast and not the truth.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the King of Bahrain, Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa, ceases to be the de facto leader of Bahrain at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa out as leader of Bahrain by December 31? — YES probability from 28% on 8 Apr 2026 to 4.5% on 1 Oct 2026
Source: a prediction market's questions on Iran — read-only