Hormuz Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?

IranKhameneiGeopoliticsIran RegimeU.S. x IranIran CeasefireMojtaba KhameneiStrait of Hormuz

Updated:12 Oct

Implied probability October 310.9%

Move1d +0.1 pp1w −0.6 pp

Bid/ask spreadbid 0.2% / ask 1.5%

Ends31 Oct 2026 in 20 days

Total volume: 73,758 US$ 24h volume: 0 US$ Liquidity: 25,924 US$

Implied probability is the price of a YES share: one costs $0.009 now and pays $1 if the question resolves yes — what the market's traders believe, not Gheymatban's forecast and not the truth.

Resolution rules (the market's own text)

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hormuz Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

YES probability over timeOctober 31

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Outcomes

Source: a prediction market's questions on Iran — read-only