Houthi military action against Israel by December 31?

IranYemenIsraelHouthisGeopoliticsMiddle EastIsrael x Iran

Updated:12 Oct

Implied probability December 3122%thin market

Move1d −3.5 pp1w +5.5 pp

Bid/ask spreadbid 16% / ask 28%

Ends31 Dec 2026 in 81 days

Total volume: 250,472 US$ 24h volume: 1,282 US$ Liquidity: 14,910 US$

Implied probability is the price of a YES share: one costs $0.22 now and pays $1 if the question resolves yes — what the market's traders believe, not Gheymatban's forecast and not the truth.

Resolution rules (the market's own text)

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Houthis take a qualifying military action against Israel by the specified date, 11:59 PM Israel Daylight Time (IDT, GMT+3).

YES probability over timeDecember 31

No stored history for this outcome yet.

Outcomes

December 31thinly traded1d −3.5 pp1w +5.5 ppVolume: 911 US$
22%

Source: a prediction market's questions on Iran — read-only