IranYemenHouthisMilitaryGeopoliticsMiddle EastSaudi ArabiaMilitary Actions
Total volume: 5,001 US$ 24h volume: 0 US$ Liquidity: 33,547 US$
Implied probability is the price of a YES share: one costs $0.075 now and pays $1 if the question resolves yes — what the market's traders believe, not Gheymatban's forecast and not the truth.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Houthis take a qualifying military action against Mecca by the specified date, 11:59 PM Arabia Standard Time (AST).
Houthi military action against Mecca by December 31? — YES probability from 8.5% on 17 Sept 2026 to 8% on 1 Oct 2026
Each deadline is a separate contract; these odds do not sum to 100.
Term structure: September 30 0.6%, October 31 3.5%, December 31 7.5%
Source: a prediction market's questions on Iran — read-only