Houthis capture Taiz by December 31? (castle)

IranYemenHouthisPoliticsGeopoliticsMiddle EastSaudi Arabia

Updated:22 Oct

Implied probability December 3148%thin market

Move—

Bid/ask spreadbid 41% / ask 55%

Ends31 Dec 2026 in 72 days

Total volume: 678 US$ 24h volume: 718 US$ Liquidity: 967 US$

Implied probability is the price of a YES share: one costs $0.48 now and pays $1 if the question resolves yes — what the market's traders believe, not Gheymatban's forecast and not the truth.

Resolution rules (the market's own text)

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Houthis capture Taiz, Yemen between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

YES probability over timeDecember 31

No stored history for this outcome yet.

Term structure

Each deadline is a separate contract; these odds do not sum to 100.

Show table

Outcomes

December 31thinly tradedVolume: 244 US$
48%
November 30thinly tradedVolume: 106 US$
29%
October 31thinly tradedVolume: 368 US$
15%

Source: a prediction market's questions on Iran — read-only