OilIranYemenHouthisPoliticsGeopoliticsBab el-Mandeb
Total volume: 511,908 US$ 24h volume: 7,099 US$ Liquidity: 100,225 US$
Implied probability is the price of a YES share: one costs $0.255 now and pays $1 if the question resolves yes — what the market's traders believe, not Gheymatban's forecast and not the truth.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Houthi military forces enter any part of Aden, Yemen by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Houthis enter Aden by December 31? — YES probability from 49% on 10 Sept 2026 to 25% on 11 Oct 2026
Each deadline is a separate contract; these odds do not sum to 100.
Term structure: October 15 1.1%, October 31 5.2%, November 30 18%, December 31 26%
Source: a prediction market's questions on Iran — read-only