Houthis enter Aden by December 31?

OilIranYemenHouthisPoliticsGeopoliticsBab el-Mandeb

Updated:2 Oct

Implied probability December 3127%

Move1d +5 pp1w −2 pp

Bid/ask spreadbid 26% / ask 27%

Ends31 Dec 2026 in 91 days

Total volume: 377,073 US$ 24h volume: 21,869 US$ Liquidity: 56,727 US$

Implied probability is the price of a YES share: one costs $0.265 now and pays $1 if the question resolves yes — what the market's traders believe, not Gheymatban's forecast and not the truth.

Resolution rules (the market's own text)

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Houthi military forces enter any part of Aden, Yemen by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

YES probability over timeDecember 31

Outcomes

Source: a prediction market's questions on Iran — read-only