OilIranshipYemenHouthisoil shipGeopoliticsMiddle East
Total volume: 140,331 US$ 24h volume: 658 US$ Liquidity: 3,930 US$
Implied probability is the price of a YES share: one costs $0.06 now and pays $1 if the question resolves yes — what the market's traders believe, not Gheymatban's forecast and not the truth.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Houthi forces seize control of an oil tanker or a commercial vessel transporting oil as cargo between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Houthis seize an oil tanker by October 31? — YES probability from 50% on 16 Sept 2026 to 7% on 1 Oct 2026
Source: a prediction market's questions on Iran — read-only