Houthis successfully target shipping by October 31?

OilIranYemenHouthisGeopoliticsMiddle East

Updated:12 Oct

Implied probability October 3135%

Move1d −7.5 pp1w −20.5 pp

Bid/ask spreadbid 33% / ask 37%

Ends31 Oct 2026 in 20 days

Total volume: 131,076 US$ 24h volume: 268 US$ Liquidity: 20,786 US$

Implied probability is the price of a YES share: one costs $0.35 now and pays $1 if the question resolves yes — what the market's traders believe, not Gheymatban's forecast and not the truth.

Resolution rules (the market's own text)

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Houthi forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM AST (UTC+03:00).

YES probability over timeOctober 31

Show table

Outcomes

Source: a prediction market's questions on Iran — read-only