OilIranYemenHouthisGeopoliticsMiddle East
Total volume: 127,613 US$ 24h volume: 746 US$ Liquidity: 1,278 US$
Implied probability is the price of a YES share: one costs $0.375 now and pays $1 if the question resolves yes — what the market's traders believe, not Gheymatban's forecast and not the truth.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Houthi forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM AST (UTC+03:00).
No stored history for this outcome yet.
Each deadline is a separate contract; these odds do not sum to 100.
Term structure: September 30 1.8%, October 15 27%, October 31 38%
Source: a prediction market's questions on Iran — read-only