IsraelIranMiddle EastPoliticsGeopoliticsWorld
Total volume: 7.6M US$ 24h volume: 256 US$ Liquidity: 334,863 US$
Implied probability is the price of a YES share: one costs $0.775 now and pays $1 if the question resolves yes — what the market's traders believe, not Gheymatban's forecast and not the truth.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in,…
How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026? — YES probability from 27% on 13 Nov 2025 to 78% on 1 Oct 2026
Source: a prediction market's questions on Iran — read-only