How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of October 12?

OilIranYemenHormuztankerHouthisshippingGeopolitics

Updated:10 Oct

Implied probability <17030%thin market

Move—

Bid/ask spreadbid 20% / ask 39%

Ends18 Oct 2026 in 10 days

Total volume: 0 US$ 24h volume: 0 US$ Liquidity: 203 US$

Implied probability is the price of a YES share: one costs $0.295 now and pays $1 if the question resolves yes — what the market's traders believe, not Gheymatban's forecast and not the truth.

Resolution rules (the market's own text)

This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from October 12, 2026, through October 18, 2026, inclusive.

YES probability over time<170

No stored history for this outcome yet.

Outcomes

<170Volume: 0 US$
30%
190-209Volume: 0 US$
27%
170-189Volume: 0 US$
27%
210-229Volume: 0 US$
15%
230+Volume: 0 US$
14%

Source: a prediction market's questions on Iran — read-only