How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of October 19?

OilIranYemenHormuztankerHouthisshippingGeopolitics

Updated:13 Oct

Implied probability 190-20927%thin market

Move—

Bid/ask spreadbid 25% / ask 28%

Ends25 Oct 2026 in 13 days

Total volume: 55 US$ 24h volume: 55 US$ Liquidity: 11,270 US$

Implied probability is the price of a YES share: one costs $0.265 now and pays $1 if the question resolves yes — what the market's traders believe, not Gheymatban's forecast and not the truth.

Resolution rules (the market's own text)

This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from October 19, 2026, through October 25, 2026, inclusive.

YES probability over time190-209

No stored history for this outcome yet.

Outcomes

190-209thinly tradedVolume: 55 US$
27%
210-229thinly tradedVolume: 0 US$
18%
230+thinly tradedVolume: 0 US$
16%
170-189thinly tradedVolume: 0 US$
16%
<170thinly tradedVolume: 0 US$
12%

Source: a prediction market's questions on Iran — read-only