How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of October 26?

OilIranYemenHormuztankerHouthisshippingGeopolitics

Updated:23 Oct

Implied probability 190-20937%thin market

Move—

Bid/ask spreadbid 33% / ask 40%

Ends1 Nov 2026 in 11 days

Total volume: 233 US$ 24h volume: 257 US$ Liquidity: 352 US$

Implied probability is the price of a YES share: one costs $0.365 now and pays $1 if the question resolves yes — what the market's traders believe, not Gheymatban's forecast and not the truth.

Resolution rules (the market's own text)

This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from October 26, 2026, through November 1, 2026, inclusive.

YES probability over time190-209

No stored history for this outcome yet.

Outcomes

190-209thinly tradedVolume: 100 US$
37%
210-229thinly tradedVolume: 18 US$
27%
230+thinly tradedVolume: 50 US$
22%
<170thinly tradedVolume: 18 US$
20%
170-189thinly tradedVolume: 107 US$
17%

Source: a prediction market's questions on Iran — read-only