How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of October 5?

OilIranYemenHormuztankerHouthisshippingGeopolitics

Updated:2 Oct

Implied probability 170-18939%thin market

Move1d +15.5 pp

Bid/ask spreadbid 12% / ask 65%

Ends11 Oct 2026 in 10 days

Total volume: 1,289 US$ 24h volume: 560 US$ Liquidity: 20,615 US$

Implied probability is the price of a YES share: one costs $0.385 now and pays $1 if the question resolves yes — what the market's traders believe, not Gheymatban's forecast and not the truth.

Resolution rules (the market's own text)

This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from October 5, 2026, through October 11, 2026, inclusive.

YES probability over time170-189

No stored history for this outcome yet.

Outcomes

170-1891d +15.5 ppVolume: 400 US$
39%
190-2091d −58.5 ppVolume: 344 US$
13%
210-2291d +6.9 ppVolume: 149 US$
12%
<1701d −1.8 ppVolume: 238 US$
8.7%
230+1d −0.6 ppVolume: 158 US$
3.5%

Source: a prediction market's questions on Iran — read-only