How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of September 28?

OilIranYemenHormuztankerHouthisshippingGeopolitics

Updated:2 Oct

Implied probability 190-20933%

Move1d +12.5 pp1w +6.5 pp

Bid/ask spreadbid 30% / ask 36%

Ends4 Oct 2026 in 3 days

Total volume: 14,827 US$ 24h volume: 1,483 US$ Liquidity: 31,152 US$

Implied probability is the price of a YES share: one costs $0.33 now and pays $1 if the question resolves yes — what the market's traders believe, not Gheymatban's forecast and not the truth.

Resolution rules (the market's own text)

This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from September 28, 2026, through October 4, 2026, inclusive.

YES probability over time190-209

Outcomes

Source: a prediction market's questions on Iran — read-only