How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of October 12?

OilIranHormuztankerGeopoliticsStrait of Hormuz

Updated:10 Oct

Implied probability 20-2427%thin market

Move—

Bid/ask spreadbid 4% / ask 50%

Ends18 Oct 2026 in 10 days

Total volume: 0 US$ 24h volume: 0 US$ Liquidity: 235 US$

Implied probability is the price of a YES share: one costs $0.27 now and pays $1 if the question resolves yes — what the market's traders believe, not Gheymatban's forecast and not the truth.

Resolution rules (the market's own text)

This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from October 12, 2026, through October 18, 2026, inclusive.

YES probability over time20-24

No stored history for this outcome yet.

Outcomes

20-24Volume: 0 US$
27%
25-29Volume: 0 US$
27%
35-39Volume: 0 US$
20%
40+Volume: 0 US$
20%
<20Volume: 0 US$
15%
30-34Volume: 0 US$
15%

Source: a prediction market's questions on Iran — read-only