How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of October 19?

OilIranHormuztankerGeopoliticsStrait of Hormuz

Updated:13 Oct

Implied probability <2021%thin market

Move—

Bid/ask spreadbid 6% / ask 35%

Ends25 Oct 2026 in 13 days

Total volume: 383 US$ 24h volume: 383 US$ Liquidity: 626 US$

Implied probability is the price of a YES share: one costs $0.205 now and pays $1 if the question resolves yes — what the market's traders believe, not Gheymatban's forecast and not the truth.

Resolution rules (the market's own text)

This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from October 19, 2026, through October 25, 2026, inclusive.

YES probability over time<20

No stored history for this outcome yet.

Outcomes

<20thinly tradedVolume: 20 US$
21%
35-39thinly tradedVolume: 0 US$
18%
30-34thinly tradedVolume: 0 US$
18%
25-29thinly tradedVolume: 0 US$
18%
20-24thinly tradedVolume: 0 US$
12%
40+thinly tradedVolume: 363 US$
6.5%

Source: a prediction market's questions on Iran — read-only