How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of October 26?

OilIranHormuztankerGeopoliticsStrait of Hormuz

Updated:24 Oct

Implied probability 25-2941%thin market

Move1d −1.5 pp

Bid/ask spreadbid 39% / ask 42%

Ends1 Nov 2026 in 10 days

Total volume: 2,466 US$ 24h volume: 787 US$ Liquidity: 60,635 US$

Implied probability is the price of a YES share: one costs $0.405 now and pays $1 if the question resolves yes — what the market's traders believe, not Gheymatban's forecast and not the truth.

Resolution rules (the market's own text)

This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from October 26, 2026, through November 1, 2026, inclusive.

YES probability over time25-29

No stored history for this outcome yet.

Outcomes

25-29thinly traded1d −1.5 ppVolume: 577 US$
41%
20-24thinly traded1d −3.5 ppVolume: 376 US$
23%
<20thinly traded1d +7.5 ppVolume: 302 US$
21%
30-34thinly traded1d −4 ppVolume: 293 US$
8%
35-39thinly traded1d +0.9 ppVolume: 300 US$
6.1%
40+thinly traded1d −17.5 ppVolume: 617 US$
2.5%

Source: a prediction market's questions on Iran — read-only