How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of October 5?

OilIranHormuztankerGeopoliticsStrait of Hormuz

Updated:2 Oct

Implied probability 30-3423%thin market

Move1d +3 pp

Bid/ask spreadbid 22% / ask 23%

Ends11 Oct 2026 in 10 days

Total volume: 5,131 US$ 24h volume: 1,583 US$ Liquidity: 25,645 US$

Implied probability is the price of a YES share: one costs $0.225 now and pays $1 if the question resolves yes — what the market's traders believe, not Gheymatban's forecast and not the truth.

Resolution rules (the market's own text)

This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from October 5, 2026, through October 11, 2026, inclusive.

YES probability over time30-34

No stored history for this outcome yet.

Outcomes

30-341d +3 ppVolume: 732 US$
23%
20-241d +1 ppVolume: 587 US$
16%
35-391d +3.5 ppVolume: 516 US$
13%
40+1d +4.5 ppVolume: 485 US$
10%
<201d −4 ppVolume: 1,045 US$
8%

Source: a prediction market's questions on Iran — read-only