How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of September 28?

OilIranHormuztankerGeopoliticsStrait of Hormuz

Updated:2 Oct

Implied probability 25-2949%

Move1d +10.5 pp1w +34 pp

Bid/ask spreadbid 47% / ask 50%

Ends4 Oct 2026 in 3 days

Total volume: 30,071 US$ 24h volume: 4,988 US$ Liquidity: 94,616 US$

Implied probability is the price of a YES share: one costs $0.485 now and pays $1 if the question resolves yes — what the market's traders believe, not Gheymatban's forecast and not the truth.

Resolution rules (the market's own text)

This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from September 28, 2026, through October 4, 2026, inclusive.

YES probability over time25-29

Outcomes

Source: a prediction market's questions on Iran — read-only