How many UKMTO notices October 19–25?

IranHormuztankerGeopoliticsStrait of Hormuz

Updated:16 Oct

Implied probability <852%thin market

Move—

Bid/ask spreadbid 45% / ask 58%

Ends25 Oct 2026 in 10 days

Total volume: 178 US$ 24h volume: 178 US$ Liquidity: 637 US$

Implied probability is the price of a YES share: one costs $0.515 now and pays $1 if the question resolves yes — what the market's traders believe, not Gheymatban's forecast and not the truth.

Resolution rules (the market's own text)

This market will resolve according to the total number of notices that UKMTO (United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations) publishes on its Recent Incidents page with a publication date from October 19, 2026, through October 25, 2026 (UTC), inclusive, as displayed on that page.

YES probability over time<8

No stored history for this outcome yet.

Outcomes

<8thinly tradedVolume: 156 US$
52%
12-15thinly tradedVolume: 0 US$
24%
8-11thinly tradedVolume: 22 US$
19%
16-19thinly tradedVolume: 0 US$
16%
20+thinly tradedVolume: 0 US$
14%

Source: a prediction market's questions on Iran — read-only