Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?

GeopoliticsTrumpNuclearMiddle EastIranU.S. x IranIran CeasefirePolitics

Updated:2 Oct

Implied probability14%

Move1d −0.5 pp1w +2 pp1m −1 pp

Bid/ask spreadbid 13% / ask 14%

Ends31 Dec 2026 in 91 days

Total volume: 1.9M US$ 24h volume: 336 US$ Liquidity: 31,141 US$

Implied probability is the price of a YES share: one costs $0.135 now and pays $1 if the question resolves yes — what the market's traders believe, not Gheymatban's forecast and not the truth.

Resolution rules (the market's own text)

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

YES probability over time

Outcomes

Source: a prediction market's questions on Iran — read-only

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?

GeopoliticsTrumpNuclearMiddle EastIranU.S. x IranIran CeasefirePolitics

Updated:2 Oct

Implied probability14%

Move1d −0.5 pp1w +2 pp1m −1 pp

Bid/ask spreadbid 13% / ask 14%

Ends31 Dec 2026 in 91 days

Total volume: 1.9M US$ 24h volume: 336 US$ Liquidity: 31,141 US$

Implied probability is the price of a YES share: one costs $0.135 now and pays $1 if the question resolves yes — what the market's traders believe, not Gheymatban's forecast and not the truth.

Resolution rules (the market's own text)

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

YES probability over time

Outcomes

Source: a prediction market's questions on Iran — read-only

Resolution rules (the market's own text)

YES probability over timeMonthAll

Outcomes

Resolution rules (the market's own text)

YES probability over timeMonthAll

Outcomes

YES probability over time

YES probability over time