Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by October 31?

IranTrumpNuclearUS-IranPeace DealGeopoliticsMiddle EastU.S. x Iran

Updated:2 Oct

Implied probability3.3%thin market

Move1d −1.9 pp

Bid/ask spreadbid 2.1% / ask 4.5%

Ends31 Oct 2026 in 30 days

Total volume: 867 US$ 24h volume: 9 US$ Liquidity: 14,277 US$

Implied probability is the price of a YES share: one costs $0.033 now and pays $1 if the question resolves yes — what the market's traders believe, not Gheymatban's forecast and not the truth.

Resolution rules (the market's own text)

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

YES probability over time

No stored history for this outcome yet.

Outcomes

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by October 31?1d −1.9 ppVolume: 867 US$
3.3%

Source: a prediction market's questions on Iran — read-only