GeopoliticsTrumpMiddle EastIran CeasefirePoliticsU.S. x IranIranNuclear
Total volume: 18M US$ 24h volume: 15,055 US$ Liquidity: 195,075 US$
Implied probability is the price of a YES share: one costs $0.075 now and pays $1 if the question resolves yes — what the market's traders believe, not Gheymatban's forecast and not the truth.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31? — YES probability from 34% on 27 Mar 2026 to 7.5% on 1 Oct 2026
Source: a prediction market's questions on Iran — read-only