Iran blockade lifted before Iran-Oman Hormuz agreement?

IranTrumpBlockadePoliticsshippingPeace DealGeopoliticsU.S. x Iran

Updated:3 Oct

Implied probability26%

Move1d −7.5 pp1w −5.5 pp

Bid/ask spreadbid 25% / ask 26%

Ends31 Dec 2026 in 90 days

Total volume: 17,409 US$ 24h volume: 190 US$ Liquidity: 12,106 US$

Implied probability is the price of a YES share: one costs $0.255 now and pays $1 if the question resolves yes — what the market's traders believe, not Gheymatban's forecast and not the truth.

Resolution rules (the market's own text)

On July 13, 2026, Trump announced the United States would reinstate its naval blockade of Iran, targeting Iranian ships and customers.

YES probability over time

Outcomes

Source: a prediction market's questions on Iran — read-only