IrantollGeopoliticsStrait of HormuzOil
Total volume: 3.5M US$ 24h volume: 5,883 US$ Liquidity: 68,697 US$
Implied probability is the price of a YES share: one costs $0.19 now and pays $1 if the question resolves yes — what the market's traders believe, not Gheymatban's forecast and not the truth.
This market resolves to “Yes” if the Iranian government officially announces and begins collecting fees, tolls, charges, tariffs, or similar payments from commercial vessels which are mandatory for passage through or access to the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise,…
Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31? — YES probability from 73% on 7 Jul 2026 to 23% on 1 Oct 2026
Source: a prediction market's questions on Iran — read-only