IrancloseU.S. x IranIsrael x IranIran Ceasefire
Total volume: 10M US$ 24h volume: 16,858 US$ Liquidity: 51,933 US$
Implied probability is the price of a YES share: one costs $0.225 now and pays $1 if the question resolves yes — what the market's traders believe, not Gheymatban's forecast and not the truth.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran initiates a general closure of its airspace, that is not solely due to weather conditions, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Iran full airspace closure by December 31? — YES probability from 60% on 27 Jul 2026 to 23% on 1 Oct 2026
Source: a prediction market's questions on Iran — read-only