Iran invades Kuwait by December 31?

IranKuwaitMilitaryGeopoliticsMiddle East

Updated:12 Oct

Implied probability December 312.6%

Move1d 0 pp1w −1.5 pp1m −3.9 pp

Bid/ask spreadbid 1.8% / ask 3.4%

Ends31 Dec 2026 in 81 days

Total volume: 1.1M US$ 24h volume: 0 US$ Liquidity: 73,599 US$

Implied probability is the price of a YES share: one costs $0.026 now and pays $1 if the question resolves yes — what the market's traders believe, not Gheymatban's forecast and not the truth.

Resolution rules (the market's own text)

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian military forces enter Kuwait by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET in a military operation that establishes control over any portion of Kuwait territory.

YES probability over timeDecember 31

Show table

Outcomes

Source: a prediction market's questions on Iran — read-only

Iran invades Kuwait by December 31?

IranKuwaitMilitaryGeopoliticsMiddle East

Updated:12 Oct

Implied probability December 312.6%

Move1d 0 pp1w −1.5 pp1m −3.9 pp

Bid/ask spreadbid 1.8% / ask 3.4%

Ends31 Dec 2026 in 81 days

Total volume: 1.1M US$ 24h volume: 0 US$ Liquidity: 73,599 US$

Implied probability is the price of a YES share: one costs $0.026 now and pays $1 if the question resolves yes — what the market's traders believe, not Gheymatban's forecast and not the truth.

Resolution rules (the market's own text)

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian military forces enter Kuwait by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET in a military operation that establishes control over any portion of Kuwait territory.

YES probability over timeDecember 31

Show table

Outcomes

Source: a prediction market's questions on Iran — read-only

Resolution rules (the market's own text)

YES probability over timeDecember 31MonthAll

Outcomes

Resolution rules (the market's own text)

YES probability over timeDecember 31MonthAll

Outcomes

YES probability over timeDecember 31

YES probability over timeDecember 31