Middle EastIranWorldGeopoliticsPoliticsIran Regime
Total volume: 39.7M US$ 24h volume: 7,489 US$ Liquidity: 2.2M US$
Implied probability is the price of a YES share: one costs $0.878 now and pays $1 if the question resolves yes — what the market's traders believe, not Gheymatban's forecast and not the truth.
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state…
Iran leader end of 2026? — YES probability from 15% on 1 Mar 2026 to 88% on 1 Oct 2026
Source: a prediction market's questions on Iran — read-only