PoliticsIranIran RegimeGeopoliticsMojtabaayatollahKhameneiMojtaba Khamenei
Total volume: 26.6M US$ 24h volume: 59,942 US$ Liquidity: 420,526 US$
Implied probability is the price of a YES share: one costs $0.225 now and pays $1 if the question resolves yes — what the market's traders believe, not Gheymatban's forecast and not the truth.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET).
Iran leadership change by June 30, 2027? — YES probability from 43% on 29 Jun 2026 to 24% on 1 Oct 2026
Each deadline is a separate contract; these odds do not sum to 100.
Term structure: October 31 2.5%, November 30 5.5%, December 31 12%, June 30, 2027 23%
Source: a prediction market's questions on Iran — read-only