Iran nuclear test before 2027?

NuclearIranPoliticsForeign PolicyGeopoliticsMiddle EastWorld

Updated:2 Oct

Implied probability3.1%

Move1d −0.8 pp1w −1.4 pp1m −1.9 pp

Bid/ask spreadbid 2.7% / ask 3.5%

Ends31 Dec 2026 in 91 days

Total volume: 266,279 US$ 24h volume: 120 US$ Liquidity: 23,296 US$

Implied probability is the price of a YES share: one costs $0.031 now and pays $1 if the question resolves yes — what the market's traders believe, not Gheymatban's forecast and not the truth.

Resolution rules (the market's own text)

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

YES probability over time

Outcomes

Source: a prediction market's questions on Iran — read-only

Iran nuclear test before 2027?

NuclearIranPoliticsForeign PolicyGeopoliticsMiddle EastWorld

Updated:2 Oct

Implied probability3.1%

Move1d −0.8 pp1w −1.4 pp1m −1.9 pp

Bid/ask spreadbid 2.7% / ask 3.5%

Ends31 Dec 2026 in 91 days

Total volume: 266,279 US$ 24h volume: 120 US$ Liquidity: 23,296 US$

Implied probability is the price of a YES share: one costs $0.031 now and pays $1 if the question resolves yes — what the market's traders believe, not Gheymatban's forecast and not the truth.

Resolution rules (the market's own text)

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

YES probability over time

Outcomes

Source: a prediction market's questions on Iran — read-only

Resolution rules (the market's own text)

YES probability over timeMonthAll

Outcomes

Resolution rules (the market's own text)

YES probability over timeMonthAll

Outcomes

YES probability over time

YES probability over time