Iran Nuke before 2027?

NuclearPoliticsWorldGeopoliticsIranMiddle East

Updated:2 Oct

Implied probability3.9%

Move1d +0.2 pp1w −0.8 pp1m −0.4 pp

Bid/ask spreadbid 3.8% / ask 4%

Ends31 Dec 2026 in 91 days

Total volume: 1.3M US$ 24h volume: 3,462 US$ Liquidity: 81,377 US$

Implied probability is the price of a YES share: one costs $0.039 now and pays $1 if the question resolves yes — what the market's traders believe, not Gheymatban's forecast and not the truth.

Resolution rules (the market's own text)

This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, Iran's government itself, or credible global news sources officially confirm that Iran possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

YES probability over time

Outcomes

Source: a prediction market's questions on Iran — read-only

Iran Nuke before 2027?

NuclearPoliticsWorldGeopoliticsIranMiddle East

Updated:2 Oct

Implied probability3.9%

Move1d +0.2 pp1w −0.8 pp1m −0.4 pp

Bid/ask spreadbid 3.8% / ask 4%

Ends31 Dec 2026 in 91 days

Total volume: 1.3M US$ 24h volume: 3,462 US$ Liquidity: 81,377 US$

Implied probability is the price of a YES share: one costs $0.039 now and pays $1 if the question resolves yes — what the market's traders believe, not Gheymatban's forecast and not the truth.

Resolution rules (the market's own text)

YES probability over time

Outcomes

Source: a prediction market's questions on Iran — read-only

Resolution rules (the market's own text)

YES probability over timeMonthAll

Outcomes

Resolution rules (the market's own text)

YES probability over timeMonthAll

Outcomes

YES probability over time

YES probability over time