IranTrumpPeace DealGeopoliticsStrait of Hormuz
Total volume: 3M US$ 24h volume: 46,647 US$ Liquidity: 115,654 US$
Implied probability is the price of a YES share: one costs $0.405 now and pays $1 if the question resolves yes — what the market's traders believe, not Gheymatban's forecast and not the truth.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a diplomatic agreement between Oman and Iran over traffic in the strait of Hormuz is announced by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A diplomatic agreement refers to an official agreement, treaty, deal, or substantially similar diplomatic instrument that establishes agreed actions,…
Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by December 31? — YES probability from 40% on 6 Oct 2026 to 37% on 11 Oct 2026
Each deadline is a separate contract; these odds do not sum to 100.
Term structure: October 31 14%, November 30 26%, December 31 41%
Source: a prediction market's questions on Iran — read-only