GeopoliticsIsraelIranMiddle EastIsrael x Iran
Total volume: 1.8M US$ 24h volume: 0 US$ Liquidity: 13,346 US$
Implied probability is the price of a YES share: one costs $0.09 now and pays $1 if the question resolves yes — what the market's traders believe, not Gheymatban's forecast and not the truth.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if participation by Israeli military personnel in a ground operation in Iran on or after February 28, 2026, is confirmed by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Israel ground operation in Iran confirmed by December 31? — YES probability from 23% on 1 Jul 2026 to 8.5% on 1 Oct 2026
Source: a prediction market's questions on Iran — read-only