Israel military action against Beirut by October 31?

IranIsraelLebanonHezbollahGeopoliticsIsrael x Iran

Updated:2 Oct

Implied probability October 319.5%

Move1d −6.5 pp1w −7 pp

Bid/ask spreadbid 7% / ask 12%

Ends31 Oct 2026 in 30 days

Total volume: 408,801 US$ 24h volume: 204 US$ Liquidity: 15,359 US$

Implied probability is the price of a YES share: one costs $0.095 now and pays $1 if the question resolves yes — what the market's traders believe, not Gheymatban's forecast and not the truth.

Resolution rules (the market's own text)

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel takes a qualifying military action against Greater Beirut by the specified date, 11:59 PM Israel Daylight Time (IDT).

YES probability over timeOctober 31

Outcomes

Source: a prediction market's questions on Iran — read-only