Israel military action against Yemen by December 31?

IranYemenIsraelHouthisGeopoliticsIsrael x Iran

Updated:12 Oct

Implied probability December 3125%thin market

Move1d +0.5 pp1w −6 pp

Bid/ask spreadbid 12% / ask 38%

Ends31 Dec 2026 in 81 days

Total volume: 328,287 US$ 24h volume: 0 US$ Liquidity: 1,703 US$

Implied probability is the price of a YES share: one costs $0.25 now and pays $1 if the question resolves yes — what the market's traders believe, not Gheymatban's forecast and not the truth.

Resolution rules (the market's own text)

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel takes a qualifying military action against Yemen by the specified date, 11:59 PM Arabia Standard Time (AST).

YES probability over timeDecember 31

No stored history for this outcome yet.

Outcomes

December 31thinly traded1d +0.5 pp1w −6 ppVolume: 69 US$
25%

Source: a prediction market's questions on Iran — read-only