Israel military action against Yemen by December 31?

IranYemenIsraelHouthisGeopoliticsIsrael x Iran

Updated:2 Oct

Implied probability December 3131%thin market

Move1d −19.5 pp1w −7 pp

Bid/ask spreadbid 12% / ask 49%

Ends31 Dec 2026 in 90 days

Total volume: 326,135 US$ 24h volume: 77 US$ Liquidity: 794 US$

Implied probability is the price of a YES share: one costs $0.305 now and pays $1 if the question resolves yes — what the market's traders believe, not Gheymatban's forecast and not the truth.

Resolution rules (the market's own text)

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel takes a qualifying military action against Yemen by the specified date, 11:59 PM Arabia Standard Time (AST).

YES probability over timeDecember 31

No stored history for this outcome yet.

Outcomes

December 311d −19.5 pp1w −7 ppVolume: 54 US$
31%

Source: a prediction market's questions on Iran — read-only