Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31?

GeopoliticsIran CeasefireIranLebanonIsraelIsrael x IranPeace Deal

Updated:2 Oct

Implied probability December 313.1%

Move1d −1.8 pp1w −2.4 pp1m −4.3 pp

Bid/ask spreadbid 3.1% / ask 3.2%

Ends31 Dec 2026 in 91 days

Total volume: 8.5M US$ 24h volume: 6,263 US$ Liquidity: 56,454 US$

Implied probability is the price of a YES share: one costs $0.031 now and pays $1 if the question resolves yes — what the market's traders believe, not Gheymatban's forecast and not the truth.

Resolution rules (the market's own text)

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

YES probability over timeDecember 31

Outcomes

Source: a prediction market's questions on Iran — read-only

Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31?

GeopoliticsIran CeasefireIranLebanonIsraelIsrael x IranPeace Deal

Updated:2 Oct

Implied probability December 313.1%

Move1d −1.8 pp1w −2.4 pp1m −4.3 pp

Bid/ask spreadbid 3.1% / ask 3.2%

Ends31 Dec 2026 in 91 days

Total volume: 8.5M US$ 24h volume: 6,263 US$ Liquidity: 56,454 US$

Implied probability is the price of a YES share: one costs $0.031 now and pays $1 if the question resolves yes — what the market's traders believe, not Gheymatban's forecast and not the truth.

Resolution rules (the market's own text)

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

YES probability over timeDecember 31

Outcomes

Source: a prediction market's questions on Iran — read-only

Resolution rules (the market's own text)

YES probability over timeDecember 31MonthAll

Outcomes

Resolution rules (the market's own text)

YES probability over timeDecember 31MonthAll

Outcomes

YES probability over timeDecember 31

YES probability over timeDecember 31