IranIsraelGeopoliticsIsrael x IranIsrael Election
Total volume: 34M US$ 24h volume: 170,006 US$ Liquidity: 400,610 US$
Implied probability is the price of a YES share: one costs $0.972 now and pays $1 if the question resolves yes — what the market's traders believe, not Gheymatban's forecast and not the truth.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state of ceasefire remains in effect between Israel and Iran through the listed date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time (IRST).
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15? — YES probability from 94% on 5 Oct 2026 to 95.8% on 11 Oct 2026
Each deadline is a separate contract; these odds do not sum to 100.
Term structure: October 15 97%, October 31 86%, November 15 74%, November 30 61%, December 31 57%
Source: a prediction market's questions on Iran — read-only